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Future travel
The ominous shadow of the A/H1N1 flu virus will almost certainly put a damper on the Chinese travel business, but its impact will be less severe than the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003, said a recent report released by the CTA. If the virus comes under control in a short period of time, the market is likely to stage a sharp run-up in the fourth quarter, it said.
According to report estimates, the number of domestic tourists this year will increase by a robust 10 percent to 1.9 billion persons, and total revenues will gain 8 percent to reach 950 billion yuan ($139 billion). The number of outbound tourists will stand at around 47 million, a dismal growth of 3 percent from the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of inbound tourists is expected to drop 5 percent to 124 million person-times, with total revenues sliding 5 percent to $35 billion according to the report.
But signs of an initial recovery have been emerging. The number of inbound tourists in August increased 3.06 percent to 11.09 million person-times, reversing a 15-month downward streak, according to the CNTA.
The domestic travel market has great potential to grow as the economy stabilizes and the Chinese people improve their standard of living, said Dai. China has already become the fourth largest inbound tourism market in the world and the largest outbound travel market in Asia, he added.
What deserves constant attention is the fact that some structural changes are taking place in the industry, noted Dai. Domestic tours will gain a larger market share, and the short-distance leisure travel of urban residents, in particular, will see a long-anticipated boom.
Equally promising is high-end business travel, which is expected to gain popularity in the coming years, he added.
Dai predicted that tourism, if it can maintain torrid growth, is likely to become a pillar industry that will help drive up the national economy. The government also aims to propel the industry to log total revenues of more than 3.6 trillion yuan ($526.7 billion), around 11 percent of the gross domestic product.
Travel Figures
The combined road and waterway passenger traffic nationwide totaled more than 500 million trips on October 1-8. Road trips increased 6.8 percent year on year to 488 million while the waterway trips went up 4.1 percent to 7.8 million.
The number of plane flights grew 11.3 percent year on year to 42,173 during the holiday, and air trips increased 7.8 percent to 5.29 million.
Beijing received 70 percent more inbound tourists than a year ago during the holiday.
The number of mainlanders traveling to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased over 50 percent from a year earlier.
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